Inflation risks on both sides. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra just dropped a quiet but critical warning; the Monetary Policy Committee will reassess everything next month. And that’s not just about interest rates. Here’s what most people missed: The government has been quietly absorbing the oil shock; shielding consumers from the full pain. In July, India’s crude bill was $82 billion. By August? $90 billion. That’s a jump; but thanks to fiscal buffers, inflation hasn’t screamed yet. Still, the RBI isn’t celebrating. Core inflation is creeping up. Global bond yields are spiking. US 10-year yields near 5%? That drags India’s financial stability into the equation too. And here’s the hidden win: FCNR(B) deposits hit $127 billion in a single swap window; nearly half locked in for 5 years. That’s not just money. It’s global confidence in India’s fundamentals. So while headlines scream about oil and rates, the real story is this: India’s macro engine is being tested; and so far, it’s holding steady. But October’s MPC meeting? That’s when the real decisions will land.