Two-wheelers and tractors are still selling like hotcakes, and farm wages haven’t collapsed. But here’s the twist: food prices are climbing fast, especially rice and sugar. Why? Because the monsoon didn’t just miss the mark; it skipped entire regions. South and Northeast India are drowning in deficits, hitting jute and rice hardest. And with El Niño coming back stronger, the next crop; rabi wheat; might be in trouble. Reservoirs are running low, soil’s dry, and input costs for farmers are rising faster than crop prices. That’s why Nomura says rural demand is holding up; for now. But if food prices keep rising and incomes stagnate, the real squeeze could hit post-harvest. This isn’t just about rain. It’s about whether rural India’s engine can keep running on fumes.