Headline CPI hit 4.38%; first time crossing RBI’s target in 17 months; but core inflation stayed flat at 3.9%. Why? Because households aren’t spending more. Even as the economy grows over 7%, it’s investment, not consumption, driving it. Car sales, credit card usage, durable goods loans; all are cooling. And here’s the twist: China’s falling prices are keeping India’s inflation low. Over $130 billion in annual imports mean we’re literally importing deflation. Restaurants are raising prices (6.94% in 6 months!) due to LPG hikes, but manufacturers? They’re eating the cost, not passing it on; a sign of thin margins and weak demand. For RBI, this means interest rates might stay softer than expected. The real story? Inflation numbers aren’t just about prices; they’re about who’s really spending, who’s profiting, and how global supply chains are quietly shaping our economy. UPSC aspirants: this is exactly the layered analysis you need for mains answers on macroeconomics. #UPSCMains #InflationIndia #RBI #CurrentAffairs #EconomicPolicy