Yes, it’s happening; and it’s not just ethanol’s fault. In August 2026, prices jumped nearly Rs 20/kg in a month. Why? Lower output (30.6mt vs 34.3mt projected), disease-hit cane, delayed monsoons, and hoarding. The government says ethanol diversion is down; 9% now vs 12% in 2022; and 75% of ethanol now comes from maize. Still, mill stocks are at a 9-year low. To calm markets, they banned exports, allowed duty-free imports, capped dealer stocks, and even plan to redirect ethanol production from cane juice to grains this year. The real lesson? Sugar policy isn’t just about sweeteners; it’s about balancing energy goals with your kitchen budget. UPSC aspirants: this is textbook material for economic, agricultural, and policy sections.